Fixed asset investment improved in the two quarter will continue
With China's first quarter economic data unveiled, infrastructure investment, real estate investment led to the overall improvement of the fixed asset investment, is expected in the two quarter this improvement will continue. In the investment driven, "China needs" will affect the demand for commodities? Historical experience or can provide some reference.
Infrastructure including railways, highways, pipelines, bridges, water conservancy, urban and rural housing construction, including, of course, environmental protection, clean energy and other new areas, real estate development and construction, including commercial real estate and residential. Two types of investment needs large amounts of steel, cement, timber, concrete, glass, in addition to the construction of basic supplies, infrastructure and real estate will drive demand for machinery and equipment, ships, vehicles, motorcycles, etc., and the construction, coal, metallurgy, chemical industry, machinery, wholesale retail (household appliances, etc.), transportation, finance and insurance, and other industries have a stronger leading.
The Chinese government in November 2008 launched to further expand domestic demand and ten measures to promote stable and rapid economic growth, investment in infrastructure and real estate investment has rapid response, infrastructure investment compared to the same period in early 2009 from the previous value of 22.7% jump sharply rose to 46.5%, which led to the overall fixed asset investment growth by late 2008 26.6% maximum upstream to September 2009 33.3%, and from two aspects: on the one hand, the consumption of commodities have obviously driven, but there is difference in the category:
(1) 2009 Chinese consumption year on year growth to improve significantly the commodity for: (year on year growth of 37.6%) copper, aluminum (15.2%), nickel (66.1%), crude steel (24.6%), steel (27.4%), coal (5%), and lead (13.6%), tin (2.8%), crude oil (6.4%) and corn (2.3%), soybean (12.7%), wheat (- 3.1%), palm oil (- 2.3%), cotton (12.6%) etc. agricultural products consumption compared to the same period decline or rise not obvious;
(2) from the available domestic import volume data, in 2009 the domestic infrastructure and real estate development to stimulate the iron ore, crude oil, steel, copper and aluminum import demand, while the import of food categories is not obvious.
However, 2013 appeared in the same real estate, investment in infrastructure to improve the situation, but to a lesser extent, duration is relatively short, drive the overall fixed asset investment is not large, so from the above two aspects of the data see 2013 real estate and infrastructure for commodities demand and prices drive is not obvious. Although the first quarter of this year an investment has now improved, imports of copper, iron ore and other have also embodied driven, but in coal, iron ore and other commodity prices have been reflected and prices may also covers the factors for the future expectations. Therefore, to judge the future of commodity prices, investment in the improvement of the duration and duration are still worth observing.
Commodity different from the other products in the manufacturing industry is a high degree of trade and a high degree of homogeneity, so that a high degree of synchronization of a country's commodity prices and global commodity price. Therefore, changes in demand in China whether drive commodity prices still need to see it in the global demand of accounting for how.
From the point of view of the total, role in boosting China's on the global economy has been strong, according to the IMF estimates, 2014 to world economic growth contribution rate in emerging markets with rate was 61.4%, of which China accounted for than up to 35.9%, the United States accounted for only 20.5%. This is mainly due to China's economic growth rate is higher, thus providing more incremental demand, and China has not yet from investment driven economic model complete transformation, accounting for the demand for industrial products, energy than should be higher.
By category, China's copper, aluminum, nickel, tin consumption in the world's share of more than 50%, the amount of nickel consumption accounted for a larger fluctuation; lead consumption accounted for the low, but also reached 38%.
In addition, China's consumption of iron and steel accounted for as high as 48%. In terms of energy, China is still in traditional coal as the main energy and in the energy structure accounted for than still above 60%, and many other western countries is to oil as the main energy, resulting in China's consumption of coal in the world accounted for the ratio as high as 50.6%, the oil consumption accounted for relatively low, only 12.4%.
China's consumption of agricultural products in the world as a whole is relatively low, accounting for the sort of soybean > cotton > corn > wheat > palm oil.
In summary, the improvement of the current infrastructure, real estate investment stimulating demand in China: (1) considering the history and consumption accounted for the ratio, "Chinese demand" of industrial product price driven order: nickel > copper, aluminum, steel (iron ore, coal > tin, lead, crude oil; (2) demand from China in the global agricultural demand accounted for the ratio is relatively high, and investment growth in China's rise does not demand of this kind of product have obviously driven, so the prices of agricultural products with minimal impact.